Messages
11/23/2023
10 : 4
This bird is cooked
Rising unemployment is bad news for the economy and for home prices
11/17/2023
3 : 6
How to Make Great Charts
An entirely biased view
11/10/2023
10 : 4
Another Reason Mortgage Rates will Fall
As rate vol dips and the yield curve steepens, prepayment risk will abate
11/3/2023
9 : 4
A Smaller “Term Premium” means Lower Mortgage Rates
Especially after Wednesday's announcement from the Treasury
10/25/2023
9 : 4
Mortgage rates are set to fall
Everyone's done with hiking
10/19/2023
3 : 45
Zillow launches 1% downpayment mortgages. What could go wrong?
The company's real risks have more to do with liquidity and execution
10/19/2023
3 : 11
Introducing Home Economics
Using data visualization to contextualize America's housing market
10/10/2023
19 : 4
Millennials and Boomers are Competing for Homes. Guess Who’s Winning.
Rising prices, high rates, and demographics are reversing Millennial gains
9/22/2023
18 : 4
Visualizing Home Sales
Untangling seasonality without losing the plot
9/20/2023
15 : 34
Why Denmark's Housing Market Works Better than Ours
Danish borrowers can buy back their loans at market prices
9/11/2023
14 : 44
One Explanation for Booming US Growth
Weak home construction was hurting the economy last year—not anymore
9/5/2023
18 : 14
Home Price Whiplash
A normal housing cycle plays out over a decade. This one took three years.
8/25/2023
8 : 4
Inventory Squeeze to get even Squeezier
People are aging and staying in their homes longer
8/4/2023
8 : 4
Expensive housing is a secular trend, not a cyclical one
Most of the increase in monthly mortgage payments is from higher prices, not higher interest rates
7/24/2023
8 : 4
The Monstrous Share of Housing in the Household Budget
Analyzing the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Report since 1984
7/18/2023
8 : 4
Does seasonality still matter for housing?
New listings are tracking mortgage rates more than anything else
7/11/2023
8 : 4
The Outlook for Home Sales
From the peak in late 2020 to the trough in January this year, the monthly pace of home sales declined by 42%. By this metric, we just experienced the fastest decline in the housing market on record.
6/23/2023
8 : 4
Will rising home construction lead to lower prices?
Apartment buildings are being built at the fastest pace since 1986
6/20/2023
6 : 45
From subprime to superprime
Comparing pandemic-era borrowers to those in 2003-06
6/12/2023
3 : 15
No homes for sale
This is one reason home prices haven't fallen more amidst higher interest rates